000 AXNT20 KNHC 082338 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED FEB 08 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 6N13W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 4N20W EQ34W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 26W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W TO W CUBA NEAR 22N84W TO A 1016 MB LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN ADDITION THE LOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RAIN OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO W OF 90W AND S OF 28W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO TIGHTENS UP OVER THE NW GULF WHERE 15-20 KT NE WINDS ARE NOTED. IN THE UPPER LAYERS...SW FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH...AND THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED RAIN AND SHOWERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... LIGHT 5-10 KT WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND JAMAICA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF N COLOMBIA...COSTA RICA... NICARAGUA... HONDURAS...AND BELIZE. IN THE UPPER LAYERS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER CUBA...THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO REMAIN OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS....AND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N79W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO 31N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGHS. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N40W TO 28N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1035 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 42N18W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A THICK AREA OF SAHARAN DUST OFF WEST AFRICA E OF 45W FROM 10N-25N SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA