000 AXNT20 KNHC 081745 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED FEB 08 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1735 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO 4N13W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 3N20W 2N30W EQ40W TO THE COAST PF BRAZIL NEAR 2145W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-5N BETWEEN 30W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE WRN COAST OF CUBA TO NEAR THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 24N80W TO 21N87W...GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE AXIS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE WRN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 22N90W TO 19N92W WITH SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. FURTHERMORE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED TO AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS ADVECTING MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE FAR EAST TROPICAL PACIFIC REGION...CONTRIBUTING TO THE OVERCAST MULTI LAYER CLOUDINESS EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA S OF 27N. WITHIN THIS REGAIN OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE FAR WRN GULF AS DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 27N W OF 93W. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE NW BASIN. WITHIN THIS REGION...NE SURFACE FLOW IS BANKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 80 NM OF COAST OF HONDURAS...NICARAGUA... AND BELIZE. EASTERLY TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KT NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA. AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING W ACROSS THE W TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WITH CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS OVER THE LITTLE BAHAMA BANK EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N78W ALONG 25N79W INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ALONG 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70-100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. TO THE E OF THIS SYSTEM ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH OS ANALYZED FROM 31N67W ALONG 27N74W TO 27N77W...GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF IT. ANOTHER AREA OF SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND TO THE NE OF THIS TROUGH...N OF 27N BETWEEN 57W-66W. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO FAR W ATLC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND MERGE WITH THIS TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED W OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGING AND THE ITCZ IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF 15-20 KT EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE ERN ATLC E OF 45W FROM 14N-25N. WITHIN THIS REGION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A THICK AREA OF SAHARAN DUST MOVING OFF WEST AFRICA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA