000 AXNT20 KNHC 071145 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE FEB 07 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N08W TO 02N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N15W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 19W AND WESTWARD ALONG 01S TO 02S42W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 18W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH AXIS FROM 30N89W TO 27N85W THAT IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 86W-92W. WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT PREVIOUSLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS NOW DISSIPATED...NORTHEASTERLY WIND DOMINATES OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN THIS MORNING AS SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND THE WESTERN GULF. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY INCREASING E-NE WINDS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF N OF 23N...WITH A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE SW GULF. ELSEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN GULF...SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM OFFSHORE OF THE NE FLORIDA COAST IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 30N79W S-SW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TO 26N82W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N84W AND INTO A BROAD LOW TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF 28N AND OVER THE SE GULF WATERS FROM 23N-26N E OF 85W... INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO ATLC WATERS E OF 80W. THIS SURFACE TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD AND CLEAR THE GULF BASIN BY WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SE CONUS. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED BETWEEN 40W-90W. THIS IS RESULTING IN OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE BASIN AS EASTERLY TRADES PERSIST WITH WINDS RANGING FROM 15 TO 25 KT. THE ONLY SURFACE FEATURE LOCATED WITHIN THE REGION IS A WEAK 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N85W WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N81W. MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NE OF THE LOW ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLC BASIN S OF 32N W OF 40W. HOWEVER...A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS FROM 37N75W TO 32N77W THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 32N78W TO 28N81W TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N82W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 68W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N63W. FARTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N48W AND CONTINUES W-SW TO 29N60W WHERE THE FRONT BEGINS TO BRIDGE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO BEYOND 32N67W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED SE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 25N52W TO THE FRONT NEAR 32N47W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING N OF 26N BETWEEN 43W-60W...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT W OF 60W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N17W. OF NOTE WITH STRONG E TO NE WINDS OCCURRING OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA...THE FIRST FEW VISIBLE METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGES ALONG WITH THE CIMSS SAHARAN AIR LATER TRACKING PRODUCT INDICATE THAT A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC AND COVERS THE AREA FROM 08N-25N E OF 35W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN