000 AXNT20 KNHC 070552 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE FEB 07 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W TO 03N13W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N13W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 19W AND WESTWARD ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 49W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN 17W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH AXIS ALONG 29N95W TO 25N90W THAT IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 86W-94W. WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT PREVIOUSLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THE PAST FEW DAYS BECAME DIFFUSE AND HAS NOW DISSIPATED... NORTHEASTERLY WIND NOW DOMINATES OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN THIS EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE SE CONUS. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY INCREASING E-NE WINDS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF N OF 23N...WITH A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE SW GULF. ELSEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN GULF...SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM OFFSHORE OF THE NE FLORIDA COAST IN THE SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TO 26N82W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N84W AND INTO A BROAD LOW TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF 28N AND OVER THE SE GULF WATERS FROM 23N-28N E OF 85W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO ATLC WATERS E OF 80W. THIS SURFACE TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD AND CLEAR THE GULF BASIN BY WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SE CONUS. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED BETWEEN 40W-90W. THIS IS RESULTING IN OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE BASIN AS EASTERLY TRADES PERSIST WITH WINDS RANGING FROM 15 TO 25 KT. THE ONLY SURFACE FEATURE LOCATED WITHIN THE REGION IS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE SE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 23N84W TO 19N84W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 83W-88W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLC BASIN S OF 32N W OF 40W. HOWEVER...A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS FROM 35N73W TO 30N77W THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 33N77W TO 29N79W TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N81W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 68W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 25N. FARTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N51W AND CONTINUES W-SW ALONG 30N56W TO 29N66W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1041 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N17W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN