000
AXNT20 KNHC 070006
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON FEB 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF LIBERIA 
NEAR 7N10W TO 4N14W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO EQ20W TO 1S30W 
TO 1N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR EQ50W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 25W-40W...AND FROM 
EQ-4N BETWEEN 47W-51W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS 
NEAR 29N98W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W GULF OF 
MEXICO W OF 91W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA 
NEAR 29N82W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 20N85W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON RADAR OVER W CUBA W OF 80W...AND OVER 
CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 81W-83W. IN THE UPPER 
LAYERS...SW FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE N 
OF 23N. EXPECT THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH TO 
MOVE E INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT 
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.     

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA NEAR 20N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CUBA W OF 76W. 
LIGHT 5-10 KT WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS WITH 
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. PATCHES OF BROKEN 
LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. SIMILAR 
SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF N COLOMBIA...COSTA 
RICA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND BELIZE. IN THE UPPER 
LAYERS...SW FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH CONSIDERABLE 
MOISTURE S OF 14N AND E OF 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N78W TO 29N80W 
MOVING E. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. THE 
TAIL END COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E FROM 32N57W TO 29N70W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE 
TROUGH ID OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 26N39W TO 18N38W 
PRODUCING ONLY LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND WIND SHIFTS. A 1040 MB 
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 40N15W. VISIBLE 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A THICK AREA OF SAHARAN DUST MOVING OFF 
WEST AFRICA E OF 30W FROM 12N-25N SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. 
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOE SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS TO 
BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 68W. ALSO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO 
MOVE E WITH SHOWERS.    

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA