000 AXNT20 KNHC 061145 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON FEB 06 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO 03N13W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N13W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 21W THEN TO THE EQUATOR AND 36W TO 01N41W TO 01N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 05W-13W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN 30W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SW CONUS AND PORTIONS OF NW MEXICO THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THIS MORNING. BENEATH THE ADVECTION OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD...A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 31N84W SW TO 25N94W THEN SOUTH TO 19N96W AND INLAND OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND PARTICULARLY OVER THE SW GULF IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF A LINE FROM 30N90W TO 18N94W. NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN STRONG IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT W OF THE FRONT AND THIS CONDITION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY ACROSS THE SW GULF. ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE FRONT OVER THE SE GULF...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS QUICKLY BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND IS LOCATED NEAR 23N82W. A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW TO 27N81W. WHILE SURFACE CIRCULATION WIND SPEEDS ARE RELATIVELY LOW DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SURFACE LOW...MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 77W-84W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY INITIALLY FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS THEN TRACK NE AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN THIS MORNING BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WELL TO THE NW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. ASIDE FROM A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THAT CONTINUES TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT NE INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO...EASTERLY TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OTHERWISE A FEW AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...ONE FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 80W-86W...AND THE OTHER N OF 21N BETWEEN 80W-84W THAT INCLUDES MUCH OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLC BASIN S OF 30N W OF 40W AND THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N40W TO 27N60W TO 27N75W. ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SURFACE RIDGE...A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND MERGE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING W OF 70W. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N68W TO 31N81W AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD SLOWLY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE N OF 28N THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N23W THAT SUPPORTED A NOW WESTWARD DRIFTING SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 17N34W TO 27N37W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 17N-26N BETWEEN 29W-36W. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 13W-25W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN