000 AXNT20 KNHC 060558 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON FEB 06 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 03N13W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N13W TO 01N18W TO 02N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 08W-13W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN 31W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SW CONUS AND PORTIONS OF NW MEXICO THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THIS EVENING. BENEATH THE ADVECTION OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD...A COLD FRONT WHICH REMAINS SLOW MOVING IS ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W SW TO 25N94W THEN SOUTH TO 19N96W AND INLAND OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND PARTICULARLY OVER THE SW GULF IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF A LINE FROM 30N90W TO 18N95W. NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN STRONG TO GALE FORCE FROM 23N TO 25N W OF THE FRONT AND THIS CONDITION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY MORNING. ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE FRONT OVER THE SE GULF...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS QUICKLY BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND IS LOCATED NEAR 23N84W. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW TO 25N84W. WHILE SURFACE CIRCULATION WIND SPEEDS ARE RELATIVELY LOW DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SURFACE LOW...MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 80W-85W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN THIS EVENING BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WELL TO THE NW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. ASIDE FROM A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NE INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO...EASTERLY TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OTHERWISE A FEW AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...ONE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20N79W TO 15N85W...AND THE OTHER N OF 20N BETWEEN 77W-86W THAT INCLUDES MUCH OF THE CUBA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLC BASIN S OF 30N W OF 40W AND THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N43W TO 27N60W TO 27N75W. ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SURFACE RIDGE...A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND MERGE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY LATE TUESDAY INTO THE WEDNESDAY. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING W OF 75W. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 36N58W TO 32N75W AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD SLOWLY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE N OF 30N THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N23W THAT SUPPORTS A WESTWARD DRIFTING SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 19N31W TO 26N33W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 18N-26N BETWEEN 28W-35W. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 15W-24W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN