000 AXNT20 KNHC 042342 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT FEB 04 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2300 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF NRN GUINEA AT 11N15W TO 6N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N17W ALONG 3N30W 3N44W 2N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 7W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 29W-33W...AND FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 39W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER AT 30N94W TO THE SRN TIP OF TEXAS AT 26N97W CONTINUING INTO MEXICO. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ACROSS SE LOUISIANA ENTERING THE GULF ALONG 30N91W TO 28N93W. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AXIS. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO NEAR THE SRN TIP OF TEXAS. STRONG NLY WINDS UP TO 25 KTS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MAIN SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TO BE MOVING WITHIN THE SWLY FLOW OVER THE S CENTRAL CONUS WHICH IS HELPING SUPPORT THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO ACROSS THE S CENTRAL GULF ALONG 91W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG 23N88W TO 18N85W. SURFACE CONFLUENCE ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N BETWEEN 83W-89W. A SMALL PORTION OF DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE SW GULF IS MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THAT PORTION OF THE BASIN. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE BASIN WITH STRONG WINDS BEHIND IT AND LIKELY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD AND ALONG THE AXIS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING SWD DOWN CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS PROVIDING MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 21N87W TO 18N85W. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 14N BETWEEN 80W-87W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND ERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KTS IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN BESIDES THE NW CORNER NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT MOIST CONDITIONS TO REMAIN OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE BASIN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE W ATLC AROUND A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 32N73W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE W ATLC. TO THE E...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA ALONG 32N43W 25N53W DISSIPATING ALONG 23N65W TO 26N79W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 25N51W TO 20N61W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONTAL AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1041 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF SPAIN NEAR 43N14W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E ATLC. THE HIGH IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER W AFRICA TO THE AZORES ISLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE W ALONG 31W IS SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE ERN ATLC AND W AFRICA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON