000 AXNT20 KNHC 041759 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT FEB 04 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W 9N17W TO 6N19W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 3N22W 3N41W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 5W-14W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SW AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 26W-31W AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 40W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN 89W-92W SUPPORTING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE GULF AND AT 04/1500 UTC IS JUST INLAND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OFF THE COAST FROM E OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO JUST S OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE W GULF MAINLY S OF 26N W OF 90W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO AMPLIFYING THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS HAITI THROUGH THE W ATLC TO THE GEORGIA COAST. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N BETWEEN 80W-89W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS DEVELOPING ALONG 87W S OF 24N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FURTHER ENHANCING THE ABOVE ACTIVITY. THE COLD FRONT OVER E TEXAS WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND EXTEND FROM NEAR MOUTH OF MISSISSIPPI TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO BY SUN MORNING. FRONT WILL THEN DRIFT SE AND STALL FROM FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE ON MON. STRONG N WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SW GULF BEHIND FRONT LATE SUN AND MON. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT E THROUGH TUE THEN IT STALL FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN DISSIPATING ON WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC AND SE CONUS. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE MOST OF THE BASIN. THE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE NOW BELOW GALE FORCE. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM E VENEZUELA SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS HAITI INTO THE W ATLC. THIS UPPER FLOW IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 81W-85W AND N OF 20N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BETWEEN 85W-87W. A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 86W/87W N OF 19N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO FURTHER ENHANCING THE ABOVE ACTIVITY. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEING USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 16N LEAVING THE SE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC WILL SHIFT SE INTO W CENTRAL ATLC BY SUN. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT E THROUGH TUE THEN DISSIPATE ON WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS TO OVER THE W ATLC W OF 55W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS HAITI TO THE COAST OF GEORGIA. AN UPPER TROUGH DIPS S INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 26N BETWEEN 42W-55W RE-ENFORCING THE COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N45W ALONG 26N53W 24N62W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 23N72W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM S AND 120 NM N OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N50W TO 21N59W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE W ATLC IN WAKE OF THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 24N63W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC TO 10N BETWEEN 20W-35W DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-26N E OF 33W TO THE COAST OF SW AFRICA. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC E OF 40W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N26W TO 22N38W. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL DRIFT S AND WEAKEN BECOMING STATIONARY BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY MON. SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SE OFF U.S. COAST LATER TODAY AND BUILD ALONG 29N SUN. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLC EARLY MON. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST ALONG THIS FRONT MON AND MOVE NE MON NIGHT AND TUE DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS W ATLC TUE WHERE IT WILL STALL FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO FLORIDA KEYS ON WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW