000 AXNT20 KNHC 031740 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI FEB 03 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 5N15W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 1N32W 2N40W 2N45W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 1W-10W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE REMNANTS OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE JUST S OF TAMPA TO 28N86W IN THE NE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH OVER W PENNSYLVANIA. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE FAR W GULF W OF 93W SUPPORTING THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF SAT AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR MOVING INTO THE W GULF S OF 26N W OF 95W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 26N. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO AMPLIFYING THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS W CUBA TO OVER THE SE CONUS. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER THE E GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF 92W. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE OFF E COAST EARLY SAT THEN INTO W/CENTRAL ATLC SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST SAT AFTERNOON AND EXTEND FROM NEW ORLEANS TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO BY SUN MORNING BRIEFLY STALLING THEN MOVE SE AND STALL AGAIN FROM FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC AND E U.S. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE MOST OF THE BASIN WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTH AMERICA OVER THE GULF OF VENEZUELA NW ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS UPPER FLOW IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS MAINLY S OF 20N W OF 84W AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF 80W. THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. HOWEVER...ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN COMPLIMENTS OF THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT SE INTO W/CENTRAL ATLC AND ESTABLISH NARROW WEAKENED RIDGE ALONG 29N BY SUN THEN WEAKEN FURTHER MON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS TO OVER THE W ATLC W OF 55W. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NW ATLC DRAPING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N63W TO 28N71W WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE TO 27N77W PULLING UP STATIONARY AS IT CROSSES CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM SE OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE W OF 77W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL INTO THE E ATLC TO 20N BETWEEN 56W-55W WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N35W AND GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 42W-46W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE AZORES THROUGH 32N37W TO 26N60W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC WILL MOVE SE AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUN.EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC AND DISSIPATING ACROSS THE W ATLC BECOMING SHEARLINE ACROSS N BAHAMAS TO S FLORIDA BY SUN MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL SHIFT SE OFF THE E CONUS COAST EARLY SAT TO SE OF BERMUDA AND ESTABLISH NARROW RIDGE ALONG 29N BY SUN. FRONT WILL THEN BECOME A SHEARLINE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND W ATLC BY MON THEN DISSIPATE AS NEXT COLD FRONT SINKS INTO THE AREA AND DISSIPATES BY TUE. THIRD COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS N GULF OF MEXICO MON NIGHT AND INTO FAR W ATLC ON TUE WHERE IT WILL STALL AS A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OFF OF THE GEORGIA AND S CAROLINA COASTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW