000
AXNT20 KNHC 021732 RRA
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU FEB 02 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE 
COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 3N21W... 
WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES WESTWARD ALONG 1N30W 2N404W 
TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 27W-40W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA DRAWING MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD 
ACROSS THE GULF. AT SURFACE...SE WINDS 5-10 KT ARE OBSERVED 
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A FEW CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS 
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. SURFACE TROUGHINESS IS A LITTLE MORE 
CONSISTENT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...GENERATING SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE/TROUGH MOVING 
ACROSS THE NW MEXICO REGION INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS NRN TEXAS. IN 
RESPONSE OF THE UPCOMING FEATURE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME 
MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY 15-20 KT OVER THE ENTIRE GULF DURING 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCATTER WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION 
PERSISTING DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN 
WATERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN BETWEEN 70W-80W S OF 
16N...AS MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AN EASTERLY WIND FIELD OF 
15-25 KT ACROSS THE THIS AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FOUND 
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF NRN COLOMBIA GUSTING TO GALE FORCE 
FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 75W-77W...GENERATING SEAS 10-15 FEET IN 
THIS REGION. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE...A FEW CLUSTERS OF FAST MOVING SHOWERS 
ARE EMBEDDED IN THE OVERALL SURFACE FLOW...SUPPRESSED BY A 
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH DRY 
AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT EXCEPT FOR THE NW BASIN...WHERE 
A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO DROWNS MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
NORTHWARD ACROSS THIS REGION. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SO FAR...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC WATERS WITH 
FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. 
HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE 
SE CONUS WILL INTRODUCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE WRN ATLC OVER THE 
NEXT 6-12 HOURS. THEREFORE...EXPECT SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE 
CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAINLY N OF 26N W OF 72W. AS THE 
FRONT CONTINUES TO EXPAND ESE ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT 
INCREASING CONVECTION OVER THE NW BAHAMAS AND THE CENTRAL ATLC 
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS 
CONTINUES TO DRAW MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ REGION 
TO WEST AFRICA S OF 20N E OF 30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA