000 AXNT20 KNHC 012341 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED FEB 01 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2300 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF GUINEA AT 10N14W TO 2N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N22W ALONG 1N26W 3N40W 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 9W-21W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 26W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A 1027 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW OF 10-15 KTS. DESPITE THE RIDGING...ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR THE SE CORNER AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN FROM THE E PACIFIC IN SWLY FLOW AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND SUPPORTING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE GULF. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE N OF THE AREA OVER LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS IS HELPING SUPPORT A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W TO 29N95W. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ALSO TO THE E ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO ALABAMA AND GEORGIA N OF 28N BETWEEN 83W-91W. MODEL DATA INDICATES A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY FORM IN THE N CENTRAL GULF LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. REGARDLESS OF FORMATION...EXPECT MOIST CONDITIONS TO REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL PRESENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC. THIS GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING 20-25 KT TRADEWIND FLOW ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. BESIDES THE STRONG WINDS...DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NRN BRAZIL IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS. PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADEWIND FLOW ESPECIALLY NOTED FROM 14N-17N. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS TO CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN...AND W ATLC ALONG 75W SUPPORTS A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 32N73W WHICH IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE W ATLC. HOWEVER...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS THROUGH THE RIDGE ALONG 31N44W 28N56W 26N68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 56W-67W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TO THE E...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 47W SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE N OF THE BASIN THAT CONNECTS WITH THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 48N18W TO 20N42W SUPPORTING A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 34N28W WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE E ATLC. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR 12N41W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ AS WELL AS SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS W AFRICA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON