000
AXNT20 KNHC 291726
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SRN 
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES W TO 7N18W. THE ITCZ 
CONTINUES FROM 7N18W TO 3N30W TO 4N38W TO BRAZIL NEAR 2N50W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 
10W-14W...FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 37W-42W...AND FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 
49W-54W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N LOUISIANA NEAR 33N91W 
PRODUCING 15-20 NE-E WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER OVER THE N GULF OF 
MEXICO N OF 25N. THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER S 
FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF ALONG 26N80W 24N85W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE GULF ESPECIALLY NEAR 23N87W. SIMILAR 
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW GULF AND S MEXICO S OF 23N.   
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE S OF 25N. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE N GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR 
THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE. ALSO EXPECT RETURN FLOW TO PRODUCE 
SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE S GULF S OF 23N. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN 
CHANNEL DUE TO THE STATIONARY FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE FROM 16N-18N 
BETWEEN 87W-89W. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO... AND THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS N OF 16N AND E OF 74W. SIMILAR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE 
ALONG THE COASTS OF W PANAMA...COSTA RICA....NICARAGUA...AND 
HONDURAS. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH 
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS 
...SW FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W. 
ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND 
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE STATIONARY FRONT. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. EXPECT OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.     

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N70W TO S 
FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
FRONT. A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N50W 
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE 
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 20N30W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
25N32W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 15N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
120 NM E OF THE LOW. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT 
TO MOVE E AGAIN WHILE THE TROPICAL LOW DISSIPATES. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA