000 AXNT20 KNHC 290555 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 7N19W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 3N28W 3N45W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 7W-23W INCLUDING THE COAST OF LIBERIA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 25W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THAT AT 29/0300 UTC FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA JUST S OF NAPLES TO 25N84W WHERE IT DISSIPATES ALONG 23N89W INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT W OF 83W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA SW TO TEXAS SUPPORTING SUPPORTING A SECOND RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT THAT IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND ENTERS THE GULF NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO NEAR 28N92W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE ACROSS N FLORIDA TO OVER NE MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH OVER NE TEXAS. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH LATER TODAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE SE CONUS BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS TO MUCH OF THE GULF TODAY THROUGH MON. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE NW GULF LATE MON THROUGH WED. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW AREA WHERE THE FRONT OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO IS DRAWING MOISTURE ALOFT OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 17N W OF 85W. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 76W-81W AND N OF 13N E OF 60W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 29/0300 UTC IS DRAPED ACROSS BERMUDA TO 31N69W BECOMING STATIONARY ALONG 29N75W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE. A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N76W ALONG 25N79W INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 24N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ARE DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1026 MB HIGHS NEAR 30N52W AND 28N62W GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH DIPS S OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 17N BETWEEN 25W-40W WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 21N34W AND SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N32W ALONG 27N33W TO A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 22N31W AND CONTINUING ALONG 18N31W TO 13N37W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-26N 28W-35W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE FAR E ATLC E OF 25W ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING OVER THE W ATLC WILL MOVE SLOWLY E THROUGH THE MORNING TODAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD E ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY PUSHING THE COLD FRONT TO E OF BERMUDA TO W CUBA MON. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS W OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW