000
AXNT20 KNHC 272341
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI JAN 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SRN 
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W AND CONTINUES W TO 6N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES 
FROM 6N16W TO 3N30W TO BRAZIL NEAR 3N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 23W-26W...AND FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 
34W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM VERO BEACH FLORIDA NEAR 
28N81W TO CANCUN MEXICO NEAR 21N87W TO N GUATEMALA NEAR 18N90W.  
RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DETECTION DEPICTS SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT S OF 24N TO INCLUDE THE YUCATAN 
CHANNEL. A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28N90W 
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. 10-15 ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE 
NRN GULF OF MEXICO. 10-15 KT S WINDS ARE OVER S FLORIDA AND THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE FRONT. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DRIFT TO S FLORIDA...WHILE THE TAIL 
END OF THE FRONT RETROGRADES BACK N TO THE NRN YUCATAN PENINSULA. 
ALSO EXPECT 10-15 KT N SURFACE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE GULF NE OF 
THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CANCUN MEXICO NEAR 21N87W TO N GUATEMALA 
NEAR 18N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE 
FRONT. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER 
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 65W-82W MOVING W. SIMILAR 
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 12N...AND 
ALONG THE COASTS OF W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE 
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN AND LIGHTEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE FRONT. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. EXPECT OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN 
AND CENTRAL AMERICA.        

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N78W TO VERO BEACH 
FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT.
A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N62W PRODUCING FAIR 
WEATHER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N35W 
TO 25N36W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 
A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 45N15W. A RIDGE AXIS 
EXTEND S FROM THE HIGH TO W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N25W. 
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY 
...WHILE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH DRIFTS E WITH SHOWERS.       

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA