000
AXNT20 KNHC 261147
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU JAN 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W...
TO 9N16W AND 6N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N17W TO 2N27W
3N38W...AND CURVING TO 2N52W IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN 15W AND 47W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL 
TEXAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MEXICO. THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 
TROUGH IS PUSHING SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM MEXICO STRAIGHT TO LOUISIANA.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF 
MEXICO AND U.S.A. GULF COASTAL STATES. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD 
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE WEST 
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 21N97W. 
RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N94W 27N92W BEYOND 
31N90W ALONG THE LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER. THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT TWO
TO THREE DAYS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
OCEAN ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND FROM SOUTH AMERICA...
NORTHEASTWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THIS MORNING.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 22N52W
AND 17N57W. THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS DISSIPATED.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH 
OF 25N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS 
THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 57W. THIS WIND FLOW 
MOVES AROUND A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N68W.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 26N26W
AND TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N27W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 55W/56W FROM 8N TO 17N. IT SHOWED UP IN 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 25/1800 UTC...IN SCATTEROMETER WIND 
DATA...AND IN THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM
10N TO 15N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT