000
AXNT20 KNHC 232353
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 6N20W 
TO 2N40W TO BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS  
FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 13W-20W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 29W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE 
LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 26N97W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. ONLY 10-15 KT NE WINDS 
ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS 
10-15 KT SE RETURN FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE IN 
THE 60'S AND 70'S THROUGHOUT THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... 
ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED WITH MOISTURE OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N AND  
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE S GULF. EXPECT THE FRONT TO 
RETROGRADE BACK N TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS TO BE ALONG THE COAST IN 
24 HOURS.     

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST 
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND LIGHTEST WINDS IN THE GULF 
OF HONDURAS. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE OVER THE WINDWARD DUE TO A SHEAR AXIS. MORE SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...JAMAICA 
...AND INLAND OVER COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS. MOSTLY 
FAIR SKIES ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD 
ISLANDS...AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N64W PRODUCING FAIR 
WEATHER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 
30N45W TO 25N46W. A 1015 MB LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR 32N42W. A 
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTEND S FROM THE LOW ALONG 25N41W 
16N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT FROM 
25N-31N BETWEEN 36W-40W. A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC 
NEAR 40N25W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTEND S FROM THE HIGH TO THE CAPE 
VERDE ISLANDS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS.     

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA