000
AXNT20 KNHC 231138
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE
NEAR 8N13W TO 6N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N17W TO 5N20W 
3N30W 2N34W 1N44W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 48W...INTO 
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S51W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A. THIS TROUGH 
SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PASSES THROUGH EAST TEXAS AND 
THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES 
THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER...
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. 
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR SHOWS UP IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 
13N80W 15N70W 14N60W...TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 72W...
AND TO THE WEST OF 80W. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS 
BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE LAST
SIX HOURS...NOW NEAR 27N69W. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS 
MOVING AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM HISPANIOLA AND 
PUERTO RICO NORTHWARD BETWEEN 603W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE U.S.A. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N70W 25N71W TO 21N72W
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N44W 24N46W 19N49W 16N56W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N41W 23N41W 14N47W.
A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 26N45W TO 21N49W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE WATERS TO THE NORTH OF 
18N BETWEEN 37W AND 55W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 16N34W 25N27W
BEYOND 32N26W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT