000 AXNT20 KNHC 220546 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0535 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... A SMALL PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 5N18W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS WSW FROM 5N18W ALONG THE EQUATOR NEAR 32W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S43W. SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 20W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 34W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE SE CONUS. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE NW GULF ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST FROM GALVESTON BAY ALONG 28N96W TO INLAND S OF CORPUS CHRISTI NEAR 27N97W. NWS DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY FROM CORPUS CHRISTI REVEALED NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WITH HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SRN ALABAMA...SRN GEORGIA ...AND NRN FLORIDA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE NE GULF WATERS LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING NW TO SE ACROSS MEXICO...AND A WRN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL REACH THE NW GULF EARLY MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NRN GULF THROUGH TUESDAY. A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS EVENING...LIMITING ANY STRONG DEEP CONVECTION TO ONLY A FEW CLUSTERS OF LOW-TOP SHOWERS MOVING WITH THE GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OBSERVED NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS OF NRN COLOMBIA GUSTING TO 25 KT. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 57W...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N63W WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS TO THE E OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...SUPPORTING ITS SURFACE 1016 MB REFLECTION NEAR 30N51W. A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 27N49W TO 23N57W. WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE LOW CENTER REMAINS LIMITED...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50-90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TO THE E OF THIS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...A NEARLY STATIONARY 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 34N43W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW CENTER INTO OUR DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 30N40W TO 24N40W THEN SW TO 20N41W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 15N45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 115 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS WITHIN 100 NM AROUND THE LOW CENTER. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES AND A 1034 MB HIGH W OF PORTUGAL. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST EARLY TUESDAY WITH LIMITED CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA