000 AXNT20 KNHC 211707 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W AND CONTINUES SW TO 4N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N20W TO 2N30W TO 1N40W TO COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OF THE IVORY COAST FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 3W-8W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 19W-21W...AND FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 30W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS JUST INLAND OVER S TEXAS. 10-20 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NW GULF WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS WITH PLENTY OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES ARE IN THE 60'S AND 70'S. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... NW FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE N GULF N OF 23N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT THE FRONT TO DRIFT TO THE TEXAS COAST THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS THEN RETROGRADE BACK INLAND AGAIN TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND LIGHTEST WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS...ALONG THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA...AND OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... NW FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W WHILE ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N67W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A 1015 MB LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR 33N53W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW ALONG 30N52W 27N55W 25N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 50W-52W. ANOTHER 1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N45W DRIFTING N. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW ALONG 26N40W 23N39W 16N46W. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TO BEYOND 21N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1037 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 38N20W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTEND S FROM THE HIGH TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. EXPECT THE W ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE OTHER FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA