000
AXNT20 KNHC 200527
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 20 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 4N17W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N17W 1N25W 2N39W...CURVING THROUGH THE
EQUATOR ALONG 50W INTO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BRAZIL. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 22W AND 
37W.,,AND TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 47W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE 
AREA. THIS FLOW IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE THAT IS IN THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE SPANS THE AREA FROM THE 
NORTHEASTERN CORNER UNTIL THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. A DISSIPATING 
STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 24N80W TO 23N84W AND 24N88W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WIND FLOW ULTIMATELY COMES FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...AFFECTING THE AREA THAT IS FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN CENTRAL AMERICA/SOUTH AMERICA AND 100W.
RESULTANT MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT SPANS THE 
AREA IS IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE-SCALE WIND FLOW FROM THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS MOVING TOWARD A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN 
TROUGH. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO 28N53W 24N59W 20N66W.
A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N64W TO 28N63W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT 
PASSES THROUGH 32N64W JUST TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA...TO 
27N70W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND TO 24N79W. A DISSIPATING 
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 24N79W TO 23N84W 24N88W
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. BEYOND 32N23W 
24N26W 15N32W 6N31W.
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 62W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 57W AND 66W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N45W 26N47W 19N49W 13N53W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS 
A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO 28N40W 23N43W
TO 17N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE 
TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 37W AND 44W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES 
THROUGH 32N23W 24N26W 15N32W 6N31W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW 
COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 20W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT