000
AXNT20 KNHC 190526
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU JAN 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE SIERRA LEONE COAST NEAR 7N12W
TO 4N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N18W TO 3N25W 3N37W AND 
1N50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN 
AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW 
MOVES FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SOUTH AMERICA TOWARD 30W... 
GRADUALLY BECOMING WESTERLY WIND FLOW AS IT REACHES 30W...AND 
THEN THE WIND FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AS IT MOVES TOWARD 
AFRICA. THE RIDGE THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WIND FLOW STARTS 
ALONG THE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 9S35W...TO 18N30W AND 26N30W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTH 
CAROLINA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W 
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...30N80W...ACROSS FLORIDA ALONG 29N...
INTO THE EAST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO 24N95W
IN THE WEST CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA. THE FRONT BECOMES 
STATIONARY FROM 24N95W TO THE EASTERN MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 
22N98W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS 
ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 30N75W 26N80W.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 
22N TO 27N...BECOMING LESS IN COVERAGE WITH TIME.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WIND FLOW ULTIMATELY COMES FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...AFFECTING THE AREA THAT IS FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN CENTRAL AMERICA/SOUTH AMERICA AND 100W.
RESULTANT MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT SPANS THE 
AREA IS IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE-SCALE WIND FLOW FROM THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS MOVING TOWARD AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 32N44W-
TO-13N55W TROUGH. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS 
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AREA. THE 
CLOUDS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE SURFACE 
TO LOW LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT 
IS NEAR 34N50W...TO 31N56W 29N63W 26N72W...TO ANDROS ISLAND IN 
THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO
22N47W 16N50W AND 13N55W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT 
PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 31N35W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES 
FROM 31N35W TO 29N37W 27N40W AND 22N43W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 
32N36W TO 29N38W 24N42W 18N45W 14N53W 11N59W. A SURFACE RIDGE 
PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO 25N27W AND 14N29W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N
TO THE EAST OF 20W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT