000
AXNT20 KNHC 181202
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED JAN 18 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 12N16W...
AND IT CONTINUES TO 8N20W AND 2N26W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 
2N26W TO 2N34W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 46W...INTO 
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THIS COLD FRONT IS STILL
INLAND...MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
RESULTANT MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT SPANS THE
AREA IS IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE-SCALE WIND FLOW FROM THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 60W. THAT
WIND FLOW IS MOVING TOWARD AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 32N43W 16N57W
TROUGH. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND 
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AREA. THE 
CLOUDS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE
SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW. THE MONSOON TROUGH
IS ALONG 12N74W ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST...TO 10N76W IN THE 
COLOMBIA COASTAL PLAINS...TO 9N80W IN PANAMA...FROM 9N TO 10N 
BEYOND 84W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. 
RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COLOMBIA FROM
2N TO 7N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 26N47W 23N50W
TO 16N57W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY 
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE 
WEST OF 60W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES 
THROUGH 32N38W TO 28N40W AND 22N48W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 
22N48W TO 20N55W 19N60W TO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. 
RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 75 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO 27N41W AND 
21N51W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 
32N35W 25N45W 19N56W...TO 18N63W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN 
SEA...TO 19N80W TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A SURFACE 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 
33N56W TO 31N62W 29N72W...BEYOND CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF 
OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 28N31W
20N22W TO 8N28W. POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 20N TO 30N 
BETWEEN 20W AND 32W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 
27N32W AND 22N43W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF THE MIATWDAT WILL BE AT 7:05 PM EST.

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MT