000 AXNT20 KNHC 171740 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SRN COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W ALONG 2N18W 3N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N23W ALONG 4N32W 3N42W 3N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-1N BETWEEN 17W-22W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 50 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 37W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1032 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. MAINLY SE-S SURFACE RETURN FLOW OF 15-20 KTS IS ACROSS THE BASIN. AREAS OF FOG WERE OBSERVED ALONG THE NW GULF COAST EARLIER THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW A SMALL AREA OF FOG NW OF A LINE FROM 30N92W TO 27N97W. RADAR IMAGERY IS ALSO SHOWING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTLINE WITH STRONGER ACTIVITY FARTHER INLAND AND TO THE N...ESPECIALLY OVER LOUISIANA. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RETURN SURFACE FLOW WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN. ALOFT...MAINLY WLY FLOW COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE TEXAS COAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW. STRONG WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TODAY DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT IN MOSTLY WLY FLOW AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS OVER S AMERICA. NE-E TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN INCREASING IN SPEED NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADEWIND FLOW. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE FAR W ATLC AROUND A 1032 MB HIGH NEAR 33N66W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THIS AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT NOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE ERN UNITED STATES SEABOARD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE W ALONG 47W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N42W CONTINUING ALONG 24N50W 20N65W AND DISSIPATING TO N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE AXIS TO THE N OF 26N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE THE AXIS TO THE S OF 26N. ACROSS THE ERN ATLC...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES AROUND A 1032 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 38N21W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 38N21W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE S ALONG 30N34W TO 14N24W WHICH IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM 14N-26N BETWEEN 16W-32W. EXPECT THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON