000
AXNT20 KNHC 171138
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 11N15W...
AND IT CONTINUES TO 9N20W AND 3N30W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 
3N30W TO 2N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 45W...INTO 
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 
WIND FLOW IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN
40W AND 60W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 40W IS 
INFLUENCED BY THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE
25N35W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA FROM NORTHEAST TO 
SOUTHWEST. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE 
NORTHWESTERN GULF COASTAL WATERS IN 24 HOURS OR SO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD AND GENTLE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ON 
TOP OF MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE MIDDLE LEVEL 
FLOW IS ANTICYCLONIC IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE-SCALE WIND FLOW
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THAT TURNS CYCLONIC NEAR 20N50W. THIS 
WIND FLOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE TROUGH AND 25N35W CYCLONIC 
CENTER. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND 
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AREA.
THE CLOUDS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
WITH THE SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO 27N55W. MIDDLE 
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 40W.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 
26N50W TO 21N60W AND 20N62W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED 
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 
39W AND 50W...AND WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N50W 
21N60W 21N70W 21N78W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES 
FROM 32N35W TO A 25N35W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 15N36W 
AND 10N41W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE 
PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 15N TO 25N BETWEEN 20W AND 36W. A SURFACE 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 
37N24W...TO 30N30W AND 25N48W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT