000
AXNT20 KNHC 170601
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 8N13W TO 3N19W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 26W...
TO 1N35W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AGAIN ALONG 41W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
WIND FLOW IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN
40W AND 60W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 40W IS 
INFLUENCED BY THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
24N36W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA FROM NORTHEAST TO 
SOUTHWEST. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE 
NORTHWESTERN GULF COASTAL WATERS IN 24 HOURS OR SO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD AND GENTLE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ON 
TOP OF MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE MIDDLE LEVEL 
FLOW IS ANTICYCLONIC IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE-SCALE WIND FLOW
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THAT TURNS CYCLONIC NEAR 20N50W. THIS 
WIND FLOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE TROUGH AND 24N36W CYCLONIC 
CENTER. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND 
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AREA.
THE CLOUDS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
WITH THE SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO 27N53W. MIDDLE 
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 40W.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 
28N50W TO 22N60W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 22N60W TO 20N70W 
AND 20N75W IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 
24N BETWEEN 39W AND 50W...AND WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE 
OF 26N50W 22N60W 21N70W 21N77W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH GOES FROM 33N35W TO A 24N36W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER...TO 13N37W AND 10N47W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED 
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 14N TO 24N BETWEEN 
24W AND 38W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N24W...TO 28N36W AND 25N52W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT