000
AXNT20 KNHC 162343
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 04N TO 
02N07W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
02N07W TO 03N23W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.   

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N100W NE TO BEYOND 30N92W. 
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF HIGH 
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM MAINE AND THE NE CONUS ALONG THE EASTERN 
SEABOARD TO FLORIDA THEN SW TO CENTRAL MEXICO...ALL ANCHORED BY 
A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 
36N75W. THE GULF IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
RIDGE WHICH IS PROVIDING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO A MAJORITY OF 
THE BASIN UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. 
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN 
WEST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E-NE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS ACROSS 
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND EXTEND A COLD FRONT OVER THE SE CONUS AND 
INTO THE NW GULF WATERS BY LATE TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 70W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
INDICATES A VERY DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT OVER MUCH OF 
THE BASIN WHICH IS KEEPING IT FREE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP 
CONVECTION THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE 
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS 
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...A RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT 
IS SET UP ACROSS THE BASIN PROVIDING STRONG TRADES IN THE RANGE 
OF 20 TO 25 KT...WITH GALE FORCE CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 
NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE WESTERN ATLC HIGH 
SHIFTS E-SE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS 
AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA 
WITHIN THE E-NE TRADEWIND FLOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS IS SUPPORTING A 
1035 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N75W THAT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE 
SW NORTH ATLC N OF 23N W OF 65W. MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE 
OCCURRING OVER THIS AREA WITH E-NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 
20 KT AS NOTED ON RECENT SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND EARLIER 
MORNING ASCAT PASSES. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH 
AXIS ALONG 55W THAT DIPS SOUTHWARD TO 28N SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT 
ANALYZED FROM 32N49W TO 24N60W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N74W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER 
THE AREA FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 45W TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 
ELSEWHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 25N. N-NE WINDS IN THE 120 NM BEHIND THE 
FRONT REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE THIS EVENING. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN