000
AXNT20 KNHC 160604
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH DOES NOT REACH THE PRIME MERIDIAN IN AFRICA.
THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 2N TO 4N20W
2N37W...CURVING THROUGH 1N50W...INTO BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR
ALONG 51W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF
5N TO THE EAST OF 50W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 50W
AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LAST COLD FRONT AND TROUGH.
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEING BLOWN FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER 
OF THE AREA TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. A SURFACE RIDGE 
COVERS THE AREA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. THE NEXT COLD FRONT 
IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COASTAL WATERS IN
48 HOURS OR SO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SOUTHERN END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 27N71W TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THE SOUTHERN 
END OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT REACHES SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. 
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA 
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO 20N82W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO 
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH 
OF 18N TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA ALONG 78W. OTHER PRECIPITATION IS 
POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF 75W IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS 
THAT ARE MOVING WESTWARD WITH THE SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL TRADEWIND 
FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 3N48W IN THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO CENTRAL VENEZUELA...THROUGH NORTHERN 
COLOMBIA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO 27N71W TO 
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N56W TO 29N60W TO 23N70W TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES 
THROUGH 32N54W TO 26N63W TO 22N72W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 
22N38W TO 9N43W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 17N TO 23N
BETWEEN 36W AND 43W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N29W...TO 30N37W 26N52W
AND 22N65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT