000
AXNT20 KNHC 151746
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1700 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS S OF NW AFRICA ALONG 3N AND THE PRIME MERIDIAN 
4N10W 5N30W 4N40W 2N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 1W-7W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS 
WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 34W-47W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1031 MB HIGH S OF MISSISSIPPI NEAR 
29N89W DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR 
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN PORTIONS. A COOL AIR MASS 
CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE BASIN WITH ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW 
AROUND THE HIGH. WINDS ARE LIGHT NEAR THE HIGH CENTER AND 
INCREASE IN SPEED OUTWARD ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN GULF AND NW 
CORNER WHERE WINDS REACH UP TO 15 KTS. DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS 
RUNNING INTO THE COASTLINE IN THE SW GULF...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS 
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE COAST IN 
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ALOFT...SW FLOW COVERS THE WRN GULF AROUND 
THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN MEXICO ALONG 
103W. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
BASIN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND 
CENTRAL ATLC...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE N OVER THE ERN 
SEABOARD AND W ATLC. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER 
THE WRN GULF WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH IS SUPPORTING SOME 
HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO SHIFT TO THE E OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE RETURN FLOW CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN GULF 
TO SPREAD EWD. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOW DISSIPATING AND 
STATIONARY...EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN 
FROM ERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO NE OF BELIZE ALONG 21N85W TO 
18N88W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE AXIS. 
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN HAS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE COVERING THE BASIN. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND 
POSSIBLE EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG AN ARC FROM THE 
COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N64W TO S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 16N72W 
AND TOWARDS THE PANAMA COAST NEAR 9N82W. THE WIND DIRECTION 
FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL ARCING PATTERN WITH SPEEDS OF 20-25 KTS 
REACHING 30 KTS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE FRONT IN 
THE NW CORNER TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH LITTLE CHANGE OVER 
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 
32N59W TO THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W TO ERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE 
FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC 
ALONG 66W TO THE N OF 28N. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS 
DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1034 MB HIGH S OF 
THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 35N31W. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
EXTENDING FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 45N26W SUPPORTS THE 
SURFACE RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE SE WITH AXIS FROM 
THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 17N44W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A 
SURFACE TROUGH JUST W OF THE AFRICAN COAST ALONG 23N18W TO 
11N16W. NO ACTIVE WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE 
TROUGH...BUT SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE AREA ARE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON