000
AXNT20 KNHC 150544
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN JAN 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E 
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 7N12W TO 5N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 
5N14W TO 5N30W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 32W-40W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF NEAR 
29N90W. 
5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE N GULF WHILE 
15-25 KT EASTERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE S GULF S OF 24N. A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM 23N96W TO 19N93W. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE 
W GULF W OF 94W AND S OF 26N. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FAIR SKIES ARE OVER 
THE N GULF AND THE N GULF STATES. AIR TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 
50'S AND 60'S OVER MOST OF THE GULF WHILE RADIATION COOLING AND 
COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS ALREADY LOWERED TEMPERATURES TO THE 40'S 
OVER THE N GULF STATES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS SW FLOW IS NOTED 
OVER THE GULF WITH A 110-130 KT JETSTREAM OVER THE NE GULF. 
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUD ARE OVER THE GULF S OF 28N. EXPECT OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE NE TO SOUTH CAROLINA 
WITH E TO SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF. ALSO EXPECT SHOWERS TO 
CONTINUE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL 
CUBA AT 22N78W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 18N88W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT. 25 KT NE SURFACE WINDS 
ARE N OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...A RELATIVELY TIGHT SURFACE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA DUE TO A 1008 MB LOW 
OVER N COLOMBIA AND A 1020 MB ISOBAR N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. 
20-30 KT TRADEWINDS THUS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN 
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. CLUSTERS OF 
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF NICARAGUA. SIMILAR SHOWERS 
ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W TO INCLUDE PUERTO RICO AND 
HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW UPPER 
LEVEL WINDS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE. ALSO EXPECT 
SHOWERS TO REMAIN OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA 
AT 22N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 
LARGE 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 
37N35W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO THE W 
ATLANTIC NEAR 28N60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW 
IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 25N28W. UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER LOW IS ENHANCING E ATLANTIC SHOWERS 
TOGETHER WITH A HIGH CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDING TO W AFRICA. EXPECT 
THE FRONT IN 24 HOURS TO EXTEND FROM 30N58W TO E CUBA WITH LIGHT 
CONVECTION. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA