000
AXNT20 KNHC 141113
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E 
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 8N13W TO 7N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 
7N15W TO 5N20W TO 3N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR EQ50W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 25W-50W.   

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE 
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED 
OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 29N93W. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS 
ARE OVER THE NW GULF WHILE 15-20 KT EASTERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE 
S GULF. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE GULF 
S OF 27N. FAIR SKIES ARE OVER THE N GULF AND THE N GULF STATES. 
AIR TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50'S AND 60'S OVER MOST OF THE GULF 
WHILE RADIATION COOLING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS LOWERED 
TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER 30'S OVER THE N GULF STATES. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE GULF WITH A 130-150 KT 
JETSTREAM OVER THE NE GULF STATES AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH 
CLOUDS S OF 27N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE 
HIGH TO MOVE E TO S MISSISSIPPI. ALSO EXPECT TROPICAL MOISTURE 
TO ADVECT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 
WITH 15-25 KT EASTERLY SURFACE RETURN FLOW OVER THE S GULF S OF 
15N.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0900 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W 
CUBA AT 23N80W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 20N88W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A RELATIVELY TIGHT 
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA DUE TO A 
1008 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA AND A 1020 MB ISOBAR OVER THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS. 20-30 KT TRADEWINDS THUS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN 
S OF 18N. CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE NOTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 
NICARAGUA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W TO 
INCLUDE PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A 
RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS 
OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE 
FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH SHOWERS. 
ALSO EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE ELSEWHERE OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN.       

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 0900 UTC... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 
30N69W TO W CUBA AT 23N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM 
OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 38N37W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE 
HIGH TO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE 
E ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO THE 
CANARY ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN 
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 22N33W. 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER LOW IS ENHANCING THE E 
ATLANTIC SHOWERS TOGETHER WITH A HIGH CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDING TO 
W AFRICA. EXPECT THE FRONT IN 24 HOURS TO EXTEND FROM 30N63W TO 
CENTRAL CUBA WITH LIGHT CONVECTION.       

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA