000 AXNT20 KNHC 140554 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 7N11W TO 6N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N14W TO 3N30W TO 3N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR EQ50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 18W-22W...AND FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 43W-46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 30W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0300 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT HAS JUST EXITED THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTENDS FROM W CUBA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH SHOWERS. A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR HOUSTON TEXAS. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE GULF S OF 28N. FAIR SKIES ARE OVER THE N GULF AND THE N GULF STATES. AIR TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50'S AND 60'S OVER MOST OF THE GULF WHILE RADIATION COOLING IS PRODUCING 30'S AND 40'S OVER THE N GULF STATES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE GULF WITH A 110-130 KT JETSTREAM OVER THE N GULF STATES AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS S OF 28N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE E TO S MISSISSIPPI. ALSO EXPECT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH 15-20 KT EASTERLY SURFACE RETURN FLOW OVER THE S GULF S OF 15N. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 0300 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA AT 23N80W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 21N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A RELATIVELY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA DUE TO A 1008 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA AND A 1020 MB ISOBAR OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. 20-25 KT TRADEWINDS THUS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N. CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL AMERICA N OF NICARAGUA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA...AND OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE ELSEWHERE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 0300 UTC... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N70W TO W CUBA AT 23N80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 39N39W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 22N34W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER LOW IS ENHANCING THE E ATLANTIC SHOWERS TOGETHER WITH A HIGH CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDING TO W AFRICA. EXPECT THE FRONT IN 24 HOURS TO EXTEND FROM 30N64W TO CENTRAL CUBA WITH LIGHT CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA