000 AXNT20 KNHC 132358 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N11W TO 6N13W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N13W ALONG 3N25W 1N38W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROF AXIS BETWEEN 12W-19W AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 28W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE GULF YESTERDAY HAS MOVED INTO THE ATLC WHILE THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT REMAINS IN THE GULF EXTENDING AT 13/2100 UTC ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N81W TO JUST N OF YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 21N91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM N OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE GULF ARE DOMINATED BY NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE GULF. DENSE LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE W GULF FROM 21N-28N W OF 90W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO ALONG THE E SLOPES OF SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AND S OF 21N W OF 92W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO. THE N GULF COAST W OF PANAMA CITY AND N OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS IS ENJOYING CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD S OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH AT 13/2100 UTC OFF THE COAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS NEAR 29N95W. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE GULF THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SAT THEN SHIFT E SUN AND MON WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF LATE TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MOSTLY DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY N OF 18N W OF 80W TO OVER CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-17N E OF 73W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS EVENING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE W ATLC WILL MERGE AND WILL SAG SE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT THEN STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE FROM E CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY SUN NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY NE OF THE LEEWARDS MON AND TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 28N W OF 70W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 13/2100 UTC ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N72W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N81W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT AT 13/2100 UTC EXTENDS FROM A COLD OVER BERMUDA TO 31N67W CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA JUST S OF THE ABOVE COLD FRONT TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR HAVANA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT N OF 28N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 65W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC TO 15N E OF 50W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 11N16W 23N17W OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS TO MADEIRA ISLANDS. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TONIGHT AND REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA SAT MORNING...FROM 32N60W TO E CUBA SUN MORNING THEN BECOMING STATIONARY NE OF THE LEEWARDS MON AND TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW