000 AXNT20 KNHC 131142 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 06N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N15W TO 04N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W THEN TO 01S47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 20W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING THAT SUPPORTS A STRONG COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE TAMPA BAY REGION NEAR 28N83W SW ALONG 23N90W TO 22N95W THEN SOUTH TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N96W. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MOST OF THE FRONT N OF 25N REMAINS FAIRLY PRECIPITATION FREE...HOWEVER S OF 25N ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SW AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF S OF 25N W OF 87W. EAST OF THE FRONT...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO BE GRADUALLY ABSORBED BY THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N81W INTO THE SE GULF ALONG 23N85W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ONCE THE TWO FRONTS MERGE LATER ON THIS MORNING...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD CLEARING THE GULF WATERS BY LATE MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NE WINDS REMAINING BRISK THROUGH SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN EXCEPT FOR A VERY SMALL PORTION OF THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM WESTERN CUBA TO ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL REGION. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ON LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 78W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH E-NE TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT...WITH HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SWEEPING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTRODUCING STRONG NE WINDS IN ITS WAKE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS MORNING BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 33N79W SW TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N81W. MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IS OCCURRING EAST OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 24N W OF 72W AND FOCUSED ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA NEAR 27N79W SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE PRE-FRONTAL WITHIN AN AREA OF MAXIMIZED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25N71W TO 32N60W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 30W-60W IS FAIRLY BENIGN THIS MORNING AS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 47W STEMMING FROM A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 40N47W. FINALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC REMAINING N OF 10N AND SUPPORTS WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING ANALYZED ALONG THE W AFRICA COAST FROM 11N15W TO 18N19W TO 27N18W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG IS GENERATING INCREASED CLOUDINESS EXTENDING FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS S-SW TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN