000 AXNT20 KNHC 122348 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N11W TO 6N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N18W ALONG 3N34W 1N39W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 48W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 30W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A LARGE UPPER LOW IS OVER ILLINOIS DRAPING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF SUPPORTING A STRONG RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT THAT AT 12/2100 UTC EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR TALLAHASSEE INTO THE GULF ALONG 25N90W TO 23N96W WHERE IT TURNS S TO INLAND OVER MEXICO JUST S OF TUXPAN TO ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. THIS FRONT IS WELL DEFINE BY A ROPE CLOUD ACROSS THE GULF AND DUE TO THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ONLY PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT AND DENSE LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE GULF YESTERDAY HAS STALLED OVER S FLORIDA AT 12/1800 UTC AND IS MEANDERING OVER THE SE GULF. AT 12/2100 UTC THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM WEST PALM BEACH TO NAPLES...JUST W OF KEY WEST FLORIA TO NEAR MERIDA ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO MERIDA. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SE GULF WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL RACE SE TO THE SE GULF BY EARLY FRI AND EXIT THE GULF FRI AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH SAT BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE SW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT EASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN SUN AND MON ALLOWING FOR YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS ALONG 64W INTO THE W ATLC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR CIEGO DE AVILA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W INCLUDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 70W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 12/2100 UTC ENTERS THE ATLC OVER BERMUDA TO 27N74W WHERE IT PULLS UP STATIONARY MEANDERING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR WEST PALM BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 24N73W TO BEYOND 32N66W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 24N73W ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR CIEGO DE AVILA. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 64W/65W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC TO 17N BETWEEN 20W-50W SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N41W EXTENDING ALONG 27N52W TO 27N59W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 34W FROM 21N-35N. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLC WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRI. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE TONIGHT AND REACH FROM 31N72W TO W CUBA FRI MERGING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE STATIONARY FRONT BY FRI AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL THEN EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO E CUBA SAT WEAKENING AND STALL ON SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW