000
AXNT20 KNHC 111803
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED JAN 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF 
GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 10N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N16W
TO 7N18W TO 2N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 42W...INTO 
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S51W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS 
ARE FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 12W AND 15W...TO THE SOUTH OF 4N 
BETWEEN 19W AND 32W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 38W AND 
51W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A NORTHEASTERN
MISSISSIPPI CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE EAST
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA...AND THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF WATERS FROM
24N TO 25N BETWEEN 83W AND 84W...TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS.
OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W...
FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TOWARD NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
A RIDGE SPANS THE AREA FROM GUYANA TO NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA
TO BEYOND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE MONSOON 
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 12N73W IN COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS...TO 
10N76W...AND THEN FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 76W AND COSTA RICA...
BEFORE CONTINUING EVENTUALLY INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS DISCERNIBLE 
ONLY BY SATELLITE IMAGERY IS APPARENT AT THIS TIME WITH THE 
MONSOON TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF THE 
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 16N60W 15N70W TO THE PANAMA COAST ALONG 
79W...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 15N84W IN 
EASTERN HONDURAS TO 21N78W IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THIS POSSIBLE 
PRECIPITATION IS AN AREA OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL 
CLOUDS IN CLOUD LINES AND SURFACE EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ONE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 50W TO THE NORTH 
OF 20N. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N52W TO 29N61W AND THAT CONTINUES TO 32N71W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 29N54W 24N55W 20N56W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE 
NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 46W AND 54W. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 20N39W BEYOND 32N37W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 20N38W TO 28N36W BEYOND 
32N36W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN
30W AND 37W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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