000 AXNT20 KNHC 110548 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 06N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N17W TO 01N34W TO 02N46W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 19W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING AND SUPPORTS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE SE CONUS. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N90W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ALONG 26N89W TO 18N93W THEN INLAND OVER INTERIOR SOUTHERN MEXICO. A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS ANALYZED FROM 29N86W TO 24N89W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SQUALL LINE AND N OF 28N BETWEEN 82W-88W. A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN 75 NM OF THE POINT 22N88W. WHILE THE COLD FRONT HAS INTRODUCED N-NW WINDS OVER THE SW GULF...THE MAJORITY OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS FRONT REMAIN GENERALLY N OF 27N AS WEST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE BASIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE GULF ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL THEN BE ON THE DOOR STEP OF THE NW GULF WATERS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC NEAR 09N56W NW TO OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N76W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS LOCATED N OF 10N AND IS PROVIDING AN OVERALL STABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH E-NE TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT...WITH HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 21N71W TO 15N72W AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS N OF 16N BETWEEN 68W-79W. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS FOUND OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 61W-71W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N72W TO BEYOND 32N77W. THIS RIDGE IS SUPPORTING A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N74W. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NE OF THIS RIDGE INTRODUCES A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N60W TO 31N67W TO 32N75W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES NE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC REMAINS RATHER BENIGN WITH NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATING AND KEEPING MUCH OF THE REGION W OF 40W UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. AT THE SURFACE...THESE FAIR CONDITIONS ARE REINFORCED BY A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EAST-WEST ALONG 27N/28N BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED 1019 MB HIGH NE OF THE BAHAMAS AND A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N48W. BETWEEN THE TWO HIGHS HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 51W-55W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG 38W AND SUPPORTS A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N38W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S-SW FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 26N38W TO 16N43W. MOST OF THE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LOCATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 30W-36W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH...PRIMARILY DENOTING A WIND SHIFT...ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N18W TO NEAR 20N20W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN