000 AXNT20 KNHC 091141 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON JAN 09 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 04N14W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N14W TO 02N30W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 19W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED WEST OF THE BASIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS. THIS APPROACHING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND DRIVE THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO THE NW GULF LATE MONDAY. UNTIL THEN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGION WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 32N77W TO EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. THIS RIDGE IS HOLDING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOSTLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND SE TEXAS THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS NOTED ON SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AS WINDS REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE. WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THIS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NW GULF WATERS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM 23N98W TO 30N88W...INCLUDING MUCH OF INTERIOR TEXAS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES TODAY...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND INTRODUCE A COLD FRONT AND STRONG N-NW WINDS TO THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN THIS MORNING AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN DRY AND LACK ANY DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH E-NE TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT...WITH HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 18N W OF 85W...ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS... AND OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 59W-68W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MOSTLY PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WHICH IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 31N THAT CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE MUCH OF THE W ATLC WEST OF 48W. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N51W AND A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N77W. A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGING IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 21N62W TO 28N59W. WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO HISPANIOLA AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 27N55W TO 19N72W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N40W AND SUPPORTS A 1016 MB SURFACE LOW COLLOCATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW ALONG 30N39W TO 15N43W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 240 NM EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES NEAR 38N27W SOUTHWARD TO 19N29W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN