000
AXNT20 KNHC 082345
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN JAN 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF 
GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 9N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N16W ALONG 
4N22W 3N35W 4N47W 3N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND 
A 1025 MB HIGH OVER NE FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W. SE-S WINDS OF 10-15 
KTS ARE AROUND THE RIDGE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE 
BASIN. PATCHY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE WRN GULF 
WHICH MAY CONTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS. ALOFT...SOME MOISTURE IS 
PRESENT IN SW-W FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN WHICH IS SUPPORTING A FEW 
HIGH CLOUDS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE WRN 
GULF ALONG 95W...BUT IT IS A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH RANGING FROM 
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SW CONUS THAT WILL IMPACT THE GULF IN THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE TEXAS COAST 
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND 
THE FRONT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SRN 
VENEZUELA IS MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES 
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS WITH 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER HISPANIOLA...WRN 
CUBA...JAMAICA...HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA. NE-E TRADEWIND FLOW 
OF 15-20 KTS IS ACROSS THE BASIN REACHING 25 KTS NEAR THE COAST 
OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A 
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE 
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL IMPACT THE NW CARIBBEAN LATER IN THE 
WEEK. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1025 MB HIGH OVER NE FLORIDA NEAR 
29N81W IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS OVER THE FAR WRN ATLC. 
FARTHER E...A FEW PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT FROM 
25N-28N BETWEEN 64W-67W...AND FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 65W-73W. 
ALOFT...MAINLY WLY FLOW COVERS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN AROUND 
THE N SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN AND 
SOME OF THE CENTRAL ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 
32N40W SUPPORTING A COLLOCATED 1017 MB SURFACE LOW. A COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW CENTER ALONG 29N38W 25N41W 
DISSIPATING TO 24N44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 130 NM E OF 
THE AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE S ALONG 23N40W TO 17N43W 
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE AXIS. THE REMAINDER 
OF THE ERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1034 MB 
HIGH N OF SPAIN NEAR 47N8W WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS. 
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THIS AREA CONSISTS OF AN UPPER 
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 33N17W....WHICH 
IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGES ALONG 31W 
AND 4W. EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC TO DRIFT S 
INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONNECTED TO IT 
DISSIPATES.   

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON