000
AXNT20 KNHC 071131
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT JAN 07 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 5N16W. THE 
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N16W TO 2N25W TO 1N40W TO BRAZIL NEAR 
1N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 15W-39W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC 
NEAR 30N67W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE HIGH TO CENTRAL 
FLORIDA AND CONTINUES TO LOUISIANA. 10 KT SE WINDS ARE OVER MOST 
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS 
OVER THE NE GULF FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 84W-92W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS OVER 
THE NE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SURFACE 
RETURN FLOW WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND FAIR 
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO FROM 20N60W TO 18N66W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE N OF 17N E OF 72W TO INCLUDE HISPANIOLA. ELSEWHERE 
...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN 
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 10N BETWEEN 
80W-88W MAINLY DUE TO TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING W WITH THE 
TRADEWINDS. PATCHES OF BROKEN TO LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N AND E OF 70W TO 
INCLUDE THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. 
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW 
CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ELSEWHERE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA AND 
PUERTO RICO...TOGETHER WITH THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA 
W OF 80W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N67W. A 
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N48W TO 24N53W TO 
20N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N 
BETWEEN 40W-48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITH 30 NM OF THE 
REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. 10-15 KT EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE OVER 
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 10N-25N E OF 40W. 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE 
CANARY ISLANDS AT 30N20W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH 
IS PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS AND MOROCCO.  
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE E TO 30N40W 
WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA