000 AXNT20 KNHC 062342 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI JAN 06 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2335 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MOST OF THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND OVER AFRICA. ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF IT EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO ABOUT 5N12W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS WSW FROM THIS POINT ALONG 3N20W 2N30W 1N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR EQ. SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 20W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NW BASIN GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEPICTED ON DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY N OF 25N W OF 92W. OVERCAST MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW BASIN. WSW FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF PROVIDING DRY AIR AND MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. THIS UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS A WEAKENING 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE ERN BASIN NEAR 27N85W. WHILE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGH CENTER GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA WITH FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT E OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED STARTING LATE SUNDAY...AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW BASIN MONDAY MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SRN EXTENSION OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE ATLC ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH WESTERN PUERTO RICO 18N67W ENDING AT 15N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO AND WITHIN 75 NM W OF THE BOUNDARY. ENE TRADES REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZED OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 70 NM OFF THE COAST OF ERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND WRN PANAMA. OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT. THIS IS RESULTING IN A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE WRN N ATLC W OF 45W. AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE MOVES ALONG THE SRN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO OUR DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N57W TO NEAR 27N62W. AS THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD...IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE N CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING THE REGION ALONG 32N50W CONTINUING INTO THE CARIBBEAN BASIN ACROSS WRN PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 140 NM E OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 24N. ONCE THE TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARY MERGE...A SINGLE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH INCREASING CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE SW TROPICAL WATERS OF THE ATLC FROM 13N52W TO 6N55W GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. OTHERWISE... BROAD SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A STRONG 1037 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL NEAR 43N18W IS KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA