000 AXNT20 KNHC 061151 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI JAN 06 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 04N12W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N12W TO 02N20W TO 02N40W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W TO 06N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 47W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 30N99W WHICH IS PROVIDING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER NE MEXICO AND THE NW GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING NW OF A LINE FROM 24N98W TO 30N93W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N89W. THE HIGH IS PROVIDING OVERALL DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY E OF 94W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD BY LATE SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT. THIS IS RESULTING IN A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N67W AND CONTINUES SW ALONG 16N70W TO 13N78W TO 10N81W. NE TRADES REMAIN STRONG IN THE VICINITY OF AND TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZED OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 75W-84W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC AND EXTENDS AN AXIS ALONG 63W TO A BASE NEAR 30N. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N65W NEAR BERMUDA SW TO 29N73W. THIS FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ONCE AGAIN COMMENCE MOVEMENT OF A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 32N53W TO 25N60W TO WESTERN PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N67W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 26N AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 26N. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC...A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INFLUENCE EASTWARD TO 68W AND IS PROVIDING OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 43N18W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN