000 AXNT20 KNHC 060001 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU JAN 05 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MOST OF THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND OVER AFRICA. ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF IT EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N10W TO ABOUT 3N13W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THIS POINT ALONG 4N30W 6N46W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2N49W. WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 170 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WESTERLY FLOW CARRYING DRY AIR AND MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING. THIS UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N89W. MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGH CENTER...WHILE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OF ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES WAS OBSERVED BETWEEN LAND AND SEA EARLIER TODAY ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND NRN GULF COAST STATES TO THE WRN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS GRADIENT HELPED TO MAINTAIN A WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITHIN 10 NM INLAND...GENERATING A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE... FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. THE CURRENT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ESE TO RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DRIFTS E TO CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED STARTING SUNDAY...AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SRN EXTENSION OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE ATLC ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE ALONG 18N68W BECOMING WEAK NEAR 16N70W TO THE COAST OF PANAMA ALONG 14N78W TO NEAR 9N82W. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED NORTHERLY WINDS AND NE WINDS CONVERGING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM ON WRN SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE... DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS REMAIN ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL AMERICA WITH SOME OF IT LINGERING NEAR THE COAST OF ERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE WRN N ATLC W OF 60W. THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH IS DRIVING AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE OFF THE SE CONUS SEABOARD...SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO OUR DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N72W TO NEAR THE COAST OF FLORIDA AROUND 28N79W. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS SYSTEM REMAINS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. HOWEVER...AS THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD...SOME LIMITED WEAK CONVECTION COULD ENTER THE AREA N OF 28N DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FARTHER AHEAD...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE N CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING THE REGION ALONG 32N52W INTO THE CARIBBEAN BASIN ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS SURFACE FEATURE HAS LOST ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING WITHIN 80 NM E OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 25N. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE... BROAD SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A STRONG 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL NEAR 42N16W IS KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA