000 AXNT20 KNHC 041722 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED JAN 04 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W TO 5N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N16W TO 1N26W TO 4N38W TO BRAZIL NEAR EQ49W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 21W-26W...FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 29W-37W...AND FROM 43W-46W BETWEEN 42W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SW GEORGIA NEAR 31N85W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. 5-10 KT E-SE WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE NE GULF. SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STILL OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W WHILE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS OVER THE W GULF. TEMPERATURES ARE PRESENTLY IN THE 20'S OVER N FLORIDA...AND IN THE 50'S OVER S FLORIDA AND S TEXAS. IN CONTRAST AIR TEMPERATURES OVER THE GULF ARE IN THE 60'S AND 70'S. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A SURFACE TROUGH TO BE OVER THE NW GULF WITH SHOWERS...AND A 1026 MB HIGH TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND 10 KT SURFACE WINDS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDING FROM E HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W TO 14N90W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES TO COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA ...AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 80W-85W. BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF THE SHEAR LINE AND W OF 80W. 20-25 KT NE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW PREVAILS. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BE DISSIPATING FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO COSTA RICA. ALSO EXPECT SHOWERS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N59W TO E HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 27N BETWEEN 56W-60W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A 1038 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 40N16W. A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC PRODUCING 20-25 KT WINDS FROM 10N-30N E OF 50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 22N33W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW IS PRODUCING SHOWERS NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 30N50W TO THE MONA PASSAGE WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION E OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA