000 AXNT20 KNHC 031742 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE JAN 03 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 7N20W TO BRAZIL NEAR EQ48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 23W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1038 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS NEAR 34N93W. 15-25 KT N-NE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE SW GULF W OF 90W AND S OF 25N. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NW GULF. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STILL OVER THE GULF. TEMPERATURES ARE PRESENTLY IN THE 30'S AND 40'S OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES...AND IN THE 50'S OVER S FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NW FLOW PREVAILS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A SURFACE HIGH TO BE OVER N FLORIDA AND A WARMING TREND TO BEGIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N78W TO BELIZE AT 17N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. 25 KT NE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF THE FRONT. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 10N...S OF HISPANIOLA...AND OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW PREVAILS. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER CUBA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM HISPANIOLA TO HONDURAS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N69W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E FROM 30N66W TO THE S BAHAMAS AT 21N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N43W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 24N60W. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC PRODUCING 20-25 KT WINDS FROM 10N-30N E OF 50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N24W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW IS PRODUCING SHOWERS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 30N56W TO HISPANIOLA WITH CONVECTION E OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA