000 AXNT20 KNHC 022354 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON JAN 02 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND OVER AFRICA. THE ITCZ EXTENDS WSW FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 14N8W ALONG 4N30W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN BETWEEN 20W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES OT MOVE INTO THE ATLC BASIN THIS EVENING...WITH THE LAST ANALYSIS SHOWING IT EXTENDING ACROSS THE SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG 24N81W TO THE NRN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W. A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF COLD AIR IS ADVECTING ACROSS THE GULF...AS MARINE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE AREA INDICATE NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS REACHING TO GALE FORCE CRITERIA WITHIN 100 NM ALONG THE MEXICO COAST FROM TAMPICO S TO COATZACOALCOS. WHILE THE FRONT IS NOT GENERATING ANY CONVECTION N OF 22N...SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N. AFTER THE FRONT COMPLETELY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...EXPECT WINDS OVER THE FAR SW GULF TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HRS...BUT REMAINING BREEZY OVER THE ERN AND SRN BASINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN PLACE OVER THE N CENTRAL BASIN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA... DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS ACROSS THE BASIN THIS EVENING SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE ONLY AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION IS NOTICED OVER THE FAR NW BASIN...WHERE LAST VISIBLE PICTURES OF THE DAY SHOWED SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NW OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO ERN HONDURAS. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS REVELED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THIS REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE TIGHT ACROSS THE AREA GENERATING 20-25 KT TRADEWINDS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS REACHING UP TO 30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN LATER TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 25 KT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE COASTS OF HONDURAS AND NRN NICARAGUA...AS WELL AS OVER THE WRN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN THE NEXT 24 HRS. ALSO EXPECT SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND FAR ERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ERN CONUS. THIS FEATURE IS DRIVING A SHORTWAVE OFF THE SE CONUS SEABOARD SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION ALONG 32N71W EXTENDING SW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG 24N81W. WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF IT. TO THE E OF THE FRONT...A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM 31N67W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N77W. THE CONVECTION TO ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE IS SIMILAR TO THE COLD FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 27N WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...GENERATING SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT IT TO MERGE WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND PUSH EASTWARD WITH INCREASING CONVECTION. A STRONG 1036 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL NEAR 37N11W IS DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH FAIR WEATHER. THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH LOWER PRESSURES NEAR THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO GENERATE A MODERATE TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT THAT COVERS THE CENTRAL BASIN BETWEEN 25N-60W WITH MOSTLY ENE WINDS AT 20 KT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA