000 AXNT20 KNHC 021139 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON JAN 02 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1100 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W ALONG 7N14W 2N23W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 30W TO 2S37W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 13W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT BISECTS THE GULF OF MEXICO AS IT CONTINUES TO SPEED ACROSS BASIN CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NRN FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W ALONG 26N87W 23N93W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 19N96W...AS OF 0900 UTC. A VERY THIN LINE OF SHOWERS IS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NE AND CENTRAL GULF WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW GULF FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 93W-97W. THE SE GULF REMAINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ACROSS THE ERN CONUS...ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH AXIS DOWN THE E MEXICAN COAST IS SUPPORTING THE FRONT AND PROVIDING MAINLY WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE ENHANCED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE SW GULF. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PASS THROUGH BY TONIGHT. STRONG NLY WINDS OF MOSTLY 25 KTS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE FAR SW CORNER. THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS WILL EXPAND EWD AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PASS THROUGH THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... MAINLY SW FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE W ATLC AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOST OF THE BASIN IS COVERED WITH DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH IS HELPING MAINTAIN FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...A PATCH OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN N OF HONDURAS WHICH COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS HELPING ENHANCE STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 85W-89W. NE-E TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KTS IS ACROSS THE AREA REACHING 30 KTS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE W ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER S AMERICA IS HELPING MAINTAIN THE STRONG WINDS. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO REACHES THE NW CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC TONIGHT ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE COLD FRONT OVER THE ERN CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO HAS MOVED INTO THE W ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N77W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W. A LINE OF SHOWERS IS JUST AHEAD OF THE AXIS. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE FAR W ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE E WITH AXIS ALONG 55W. A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 29N71W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE NRN TIP OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 68W-71W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ALSO ALONG 31N54W TO 29N64W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG IT. THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT HAS LOST ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND HAS SHIFTED E WITH AXIS ALONG 42W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1035 MB HIGH NEAR 35N21W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 21W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS S OF THE RIDGE NEAR 25N28W SUPPORTING SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE WRN COAST OF AFRICA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON