000 AXNT20 KNHC 012345 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN JAN 01 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2335 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND OVER AFRICA. THE ITCZ EXTENDS WSW FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W ALONG 2N27W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SRN STATES. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG 30N87W CONTINUING SW TO THE CITY OF TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A NARROW LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY N OF 26N...BECOMING WIDESPREAD AND MORE INTENSE S OF 26N UP TO 65 NM W OF THE FRONT. MARINE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE NW BASIN INDICATE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO EXPAND OVER THE GULF...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY MONDAY MORNING WITH MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION LINGERING IN THIS REGION. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW BASIN WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OCCURRING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS ACROSS THE BASIN THIS EVENING SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. JUST WIDELY ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS ARE DEPICTED ON THE PUERTO RICO DOPPLER RADAR. LAST VISIBLE PICTURES OF THE DAY SHOWED SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE AND WRN HONDURAS OFF TO 90 NM OFFSHORE. A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOTED ACROSS THE AREA GENERATING 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF NRN COLOMBIA. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BEFORE THE SRN EXTENSION OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN MONDAY EVENING WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 25 KT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WRN ATLC ANALYZED ALONG 32N58W TO 28N69W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF IT. TO THE SW OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND ERN CUBA EXTENDING FROM 27N72W TO 20N77W. THE ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS LIMITED AS WELL DUE TO AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE WRN ATLC W OF 63W. THIS UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS A WEAK 1022 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 28N78W. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE ERN ATLC DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH FAIR WEATHER. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH LOWER PRESSURES NEAR THE ITCZ IS GENERATING A STRONG SURFACE GRADIENT THAT COVERS A GREAT PART OF THE BASIN WITH EASTERLY TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE OF FLOW OF 20-25 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE ERN CONUS SEABOARD IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION AND GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 27N W OF FRONT GENERATING SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA