000 AXNT20 KNHC 011740 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN JAN 01 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 3N20W TO BRAZIL NEAR 2N45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 18W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. AS OF 1500 UTC...THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA TO THE NW GULF TO N OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A GOOD AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING IS NOTED NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. 25 KT N WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. FURTHER E...A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF. 15 KT E WINDS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ELSEWHERE BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N AND W OF 93W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW PREVAILS. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF FROM 23N-29N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION MOSTLY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ALSO EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE SW GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 85W-89W. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN SEA NAMELY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...COSTA RICA... NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS FROM 9N-17N BETWEEN 82W-89W...AND OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR INCREASED CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 82W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N68W TO 29N72W MOVING E. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. FURTHER S...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N72W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO E CUBA NEAR 20N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1036 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N30W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 30N50W THUS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS EASTERLY FLOW FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN W AFRICA AND 50W. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALSO OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC PRODUCING 25-30 KT WINDS FROM 15N-25N E OF 50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 21N29W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N-25N E OF 25W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A NEW COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N77W TO S FLORIDA. ALSO EXPECT THE TAIL END OF THE OTHER COLD FRONT TO BE FROM 30N66W TO N OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA