000 AXNT20 KNHC 281159 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE IRENE MADE LANDFALL ABOUT 28/0935 UTC ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST NEAR LITTLE EGG INLET. HURRICANE IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 40.3N 74.1W AT 28/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 35 NM SSW OF NEW YORK CITY MOVING N-NE AT 22 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COVER A LARGE AREA INLAND OVER THE NE CONUS AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM CHESAPEAKE BAY TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A 1011 MB LOW IS SSE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 10N21W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE NW SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 9 KT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A 1010 MB IS SSW OF BERMUDA NEAR 29N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N61W 27N67W TO 30N67W. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE TODAY BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME EVEN LESS FAVORABLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD 13-17 KT. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS COULD AFFECT BERMUDA TODAY. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N16W THROUGH THE 1011 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE TO 10N24W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 5N21W TO 12N26W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA BETWEEN 5N-10N. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS DIPS S OVER THE N GULF TO 27N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 28/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA JUST W OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF JUST N OF CEDAR KEY ALONG 28N88W TO 29N92W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA NEAR LAKE CHARLES THEN OVER E TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30/45 NM OF LINE FROM JUST INLAND N OF TAMPA FLORIDA INTO THE GULF ALONG 27N86W TO 27N90W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF N OF 24N IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N E OF 94W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF S OF 24N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE THROUGH MON NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE SW GULF WED AND THU AS THE ATLC SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD ALONG THE FAR N GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W ANCHORED NEAR 19N85W GENERATING SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N W OF 86W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INCLUDING BELIZE. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND COMBINED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 14N BETWEEN 65W-81W TO OVER PUERTO RICO... HAITI...E CUBA...AND JAMAICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 11N79W TO OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W GENERATING SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N BETWEEN 69W-78W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA...PORTIONS OF VENEZUELA AND INCLUDING THE ABC ISLANDS. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE W ATLC MON THROUGH WED INCREASING TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN. THE TRADES WILL THEN WEAKEN THU AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE IRENE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E CONUS EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF 74W WHILE THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA ACROSS NE FLORIDA JUST W OF JACKSONVILLE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N62W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH S INTO THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE SUPPORTING THE 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE E OF THE SURFACE LOW WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 27N56W TO 31N60W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SE OF THE 1010 MB LOW EXTENDING FROM 24N58W TO 16N55W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM A 1022 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N51W TO 20N50W. A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 18N35W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 26N28W ALONG 22N34W THROUGH THE LOW TO 14N39W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 20N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 18N61W ACROSS BARBADOS TO 11N59W MOVING TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE TROUGH. LINGERING LARGE SWELLS OVER THE N/CENTRAL AND W ATLC GENERATED FROM HURRICANE IRENE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD IN THE WAKE OF IRENE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY RETREAT AS A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NW PORTION MON NIGHT SLOWLY SHIFTING E AND EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY THU. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW/FG